Would Tony Blair serve a full third term if re-elected?
The Prime Minister�s �worst month� and a news-light bank holiday have fuelled speculation about his future.
This is always a difficult question for leaders to answer. If the PM goes into a general election leaving any doubt that he will carry on, people will say: �Vote Blair, get Brown, or someone else.� If he confirms he will serve a full term, he must do it in a way that does not sound like Margaret Thatcher when she declared before her third election victory that she would �go on and on.�
I have always thought Tony Blair would not want to repeat Mrs Thatcher�s and John Major�s mistake of hanging on to the bitter end. He does not want to suffer the indignity of assassination by his own colleagues, like Mrs Thatcher, or a drubbing at the polls, like Mr Major. He will go at a time of his own choosing and surprise us all. That may happen sooner rather than later if Iraq descends into chaos or for family reasons. (One should never underestimate the toll that being Prime Minister takes on family life) But I can�t see the PM going soon, nor any reason why he should.
He presides over a golden economy, public services are improving and he continues to enjoy the longest sustained lead in the opinion polls for any leader of any party in modern times. He is still young and believes he has more to do. Significantly, the Conservatives and Liberals want him to go. A sure sign he is an electoral asset.
So, I suspect those predicting his imminent demise are wrong, as they have been before.
But that won�t stop the speculation now, after his next �worst month�, through more quiet bank holidays right up to and through the next general election.
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